As I sit here analyzing the 2020 NBA championship landscape, I can't help but think about how dramatically the odds have shifted throughout this unprecedented season. The suspension of play back in March created a scenario where anything could happen, reminding me of that fascinating bit of basketball history where an unexpected opportunity opened the door for more chances for the 1985 PBA Rookie of the Year. That's exactly what this extended break has done for several teams - it's given them a fresh start and reset the championship conversation in ways nobody could have predicted before the pandemic turned everything upside down.
When we look at the actual championship probabilities, we need to consider three critical factors: roster health, the bubble environment impact, and the unique playoff format. Having followed the NBA for over two decades, I've never seen a situation where teams had four months off mid-season, then resumed play in complete isolation. This has fundamentally altered the championship calculus. The Milwaukee Bucks, for instance, entered the season as overwhelming favorites with what I calculated as approximately 38% championship probability back in February. Giannis Antetokounmpo was having an MVP-caliber season, and their net rating of +10.7 was historically dominant. But here's where my perspective might differ from conventional analysis - I believe the extended break actually hurt their chances more than it helped. They'd built incredible rhythm and momentum, and that's been disrupted. I'd now place their odds closer to 28%, still the highest in the league but significantly diminished from their pre-pandemic peak.
The Los Angeles teams present the most fascinating case study. The Lakers, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, saw their odds improve during the hiatus in my estimation. LeBron at 35 years old benefits more from rest than perhaps any superstar in recent memory. Before the shutdown, I had them at about 22% probability. Now? I'd bump that up to around 26%. Their championship window is now, and the extended preparation time has allowed them to integrate new additions like Dion Waiters and J.R. Smith more effectively than would have been possible during a normal season. The Clippers, meanwhile, present what I consider the most volatile championship profile. When healthy, they're arguably the most talented team in basketball, but Kawhi Leonard's load management and Paul George's shoulder concerns make them difficult to trust completely. I had them at 18% before the break, and honestly, I'm keeping them right there. The uncertainty cuts both ways - they could either dominate or flame out spectacularly.
What really fascinates me are the dark horse contenders who've seen their odds improve dramatically. The Boston Celtics, for instance, have benefited tremendously from the extended break. Jayson Tatum was playing at a superstar level before the shutdown, and the extra months have allowed Gordon Hayward to fully recover from his hand injury. I'd place their championship probability at about 8%, up from maybe 4% back in March. The Toronto Raptors, despite losing Kawhi Leonard, have maintained their championship DNA and defensive identity. Nick Nurse is arguably the most creative coach in the league, and in this unique environment, coaching matters more than ever. I'd give them a 6% chance, which might surprise people but reflects what I've observed about their resilience and depth.
Then we have the true longshots who could potentially make noise. The Houston Rockets with their micro-ball approach either look like geniuses or mad scientists depending on which game you watch. In a seven-game series, their style becomes increasingly predictable, which is why I can't put them higher than 3% despite James Harden's incredible scoring prowess. The Denver Nuggets, with Nikola Jokic reportedly arriving in the bubble significantly slimmer, intrigue me more than most analysts seem to acknowledge. I'd place them at 4% because Jokic's unique skill set can single-handedly win playoff games. The Miami Heat, with their culture and Jimmy Butler's playoff experience, deserve about 2% in my book - not likely, but not impossible either.
The remaining teams face what I consider mathematical longshots, though in this strange season, we can't completely rule anything out. The Philadelphia 76ers, despite their talent, have looked disjointed all season, and I'm skeptical they can flip the switch in the playoffs. I'd give them about 1.5% probability. The Dallas Mavericks with Luka Doncic are fascinating - he's capable of willing a team to victory single-handedly, but their defense concerns me too much to put them above 1%. The rest of the field, including teams like the Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Indiana Pacers, all sit below 1% in my estimation. They're good teams, but championship material in this loaded field? I just don't see it.
What's become clear to me through analyzing this unique championship race is that the bubble environment has created what I call "opportunity windows" for teams that might have been written off under normal circumstances. Much like that 1985 PBA Rookie of the Year who got unexpected opportunities that changed his career trajectory, several NBA teams have been handed a similar second chance. The extended break allowed injured players to heal, gave coaches unprecedented time to prepare, and created psychological advantages for certain teams that were struggling before the shutdown. In my view, this has compressed the championship probabilities more than in a typical season. Whereas normally we might have two or three legitimate contenders, I see at least five teams with realistic shots, and another three or four that could get hot at the right time.
Ultimately, championship probability isn't just about talent or regular season performance - it's about timing, circumstance, and which teams can best adapt to this unprecedented situation. Having watched basketball through multiple eras, what strikes me about this particular championship race is how the traditional advantages have been leveled. Home court advantage is gone, travel fatigue isn't a factor, and the isolation of the bubble creates mental challenges that affect teams differently. This makes the probabilities more fluid than ever. While the Bucks and Lakers remain the most likely champions, the gap between them and the next tier is narrower than in any season I can remember. The team that ultimately raises the Larry O'Brien Trophy will need talent, certainly, but also the mental fortitude to thrive in what might be the most unique championship environment in NBA history.
